I have been investing and studying, and writing about the US Stock Market since 1998 when I was a regular poster on the popular site Raging Bull and also on Yahoo message boards. I have written on my blog about the economy and stocks since 2004. It is my opinion that everyone needs to gain some basic knowledge of the markets to have any chance to avoid huge losses.
How does the market work? I might have asked “how did it work?” because today the majority of volume comes from HFT (high frequency traders or computer programs), large hedge funds and banks through the sloshy FED liquidity and 0% rates banks pay in response to the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Lots of this money “free” money makes its way into the stock market. Computer programs are set to make 100’s if not thousands of micro second trades taking advantage of their speed and small price movements that can be taken advantage of. IMHO, the voting mechanism of the stock market, the shares bought and sold by the “little people” is broken. What we mostly have now is TREND TRADING.
Now the argument most financial advisors make is you LEAVE MONEY IN THE MARKET, you NEVER take it out, “it’s time IN the market, not timing the market” that counts. In a BULL MARKET, that is viable argument, but in a BEAR MARKET you can see 40-50% losses pile up and more. For the last 12 years stocks have underperformed almost every asset class, GOLD being the #1 performing asset class. Gold has been rising with the falling US $ and world Central bank money printing.
Who can time the market, why even try? While no one gets in at bottom and out at THE TOP, it would be nice to know before the losses become TOO GREAT, that a Bear Market in under way, and at the very least you should get more defensive, and raise cash. How can you buy at bargain prices if you are all in?
Bear markets are great to strip away inflated speculative prices and bear bargains, but you must have raised or have cash to buy.
In our current environment, speculative assets have been made to appear safe, and there is little else to invest in for a return when 2% or below is the 10 year Bond yield. There is NO balance to the investing landscape, to me that will spell trouble at some point.
What can you do to understand the market better? Read, read, and read some more. My website was started in an attempt to help educate people. I use technical analysis, where you can look at price movement in a non fundamental way. meaning, the noise from the news, and such are no longer important. Price and momentum, and other indicators become your tea leaves, less opinion…more price action is what I rely on.
And the important reason to do this is to spot a Bear Market before it ravages your portfolio, and with the cash raised, you will be able to buy great companies at discounted prices.
The stock market, like a lot of markets mostly sets price by supply and demand. Markets can rise on falling demand without intense selling. markets can fall without intense selling if buyers don’t show up.
One of the key components to use is moving averages and certain time frames and their relationship with price. The current back drop is a market that is heavily influenced by FED RESERVE Monetary policy and it has emboldened, as it has in the past, for major players to leverage and speculate. And to a good extent, price has become unhinged from the fundamental values…this cannot last forever.
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